Presidential Elections and Parliamentary Elections, 14 May 2023

Earthquakes, 6 February 2023 

In February 2023, Turkey experienced two magnitude 7.8 and 7.5 earthquakes, the most severe since 1939, and endured thousands of aftershocks. This disaster cost the lives of almost 46,000 people and injured over 108,000 more in Turkey alone (IMC 2023; Support to Life 2023). An estimated 173,000 buildings collapsed or sustained heavy damage, displacing an estimated 2.2 million people (Support to Life 2023; Lewis 2023). According to early assessments the disaster caused an estimated USD $34 billion in direct damage (four per cent of national GDP in 2021), with total costs perhaps twice this – or higher (at USD $80 billion) according to Turkish employers (World Bank 2023; Turkonfed 2023).  

The Government of Turkey’s Ministry of the Interior Disaster and Emergency Management Authority published data showing an increase in earthquakes, from 745 in the year 2000 to over 74,000 in 2023 (AFAD 2023).  

Impact on the electoral process  

Originally scheduled for 18 June 2023, the elections were brought forward to 14 May 2023, with the second round on 28 May – a decision announced by the President on 10 March 2023 after the earthquakes had struck. In the wake of the disaster public opinion was divided over two options – having prompt elections or postponing them. Whether postponement would have been constitutional was questionable, but ultimately the timing was decided instead within the settled scope of article 116 of the Constitution of Turkey (Toros 2024).  

Political parties shifted their campaign strategies following the earthquake. For example, the incumbent AKP party moved from "Türkiye Century” slogan to “We’re starting anew” and held smaller rallies at temporary displacement sites. The opposition party started and ended their campaigning in the earthquake affected region (Toros 2024). 

While there were several organizations that offered transport to help displaced persons to vote, many had difficulty in returning to their places of permanent residence (Toros 2024). Very few voters were left in earthquake-affected constituencies. The Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK) did not identify the individuals who left or were confirmed deceased, nor did it update addresses to help calculate the number or parliamentary members for the impacted districts (Kanadoğlu and Şahin 2023). Instead, the YSK opened extra facilities for earthquake victims to change their address without the previous required amount of documentation.  

This option was only available to those that relocated (taken up by around 453,000 persons); those who stayed in their original settlements had to supply ample paperwork. These two systems may have created inconsistencies in voting records, but no data exists to measure this (Toros 2024). There were also inconsistencies with voter status of those that had died in the earthquake or had not yet been found. However, the relocation of voters did not produce dramatic changes in the electoral result (Toros 2024). 

In earthquake-affected areas, the YSK and local authorities took additional measures to ensure that buildings housing polling stations were structurally sound (Dal 2023). Where buildings were unsuitable, polling stations were moved. In villages where access was difficult, voting tents were set up.   

Voter turnout for both the presidential and parliamentary elections was about 87 per cent; in 2018 it had been about 86 per cent (International IDEA n.d.).