St. Mary’s South By-Election, 24 October 2023

Tropical Storm Philippe, 23 September–6 October 2023

Hurricane Tammy, 18–28 October 2023 

On 2 October 2023, two weeks before Antigua’s by-election, Tropical Storm Philippe made landfall in Antigua and Barbuda (Captive International 2023). This brought six to eight inches of rain, causing flooding and power loss to both islands (TOI 2023). Storm Philippe cost the country  USD $2.88 million in damage (Captive International 2023). 

A week later, Antigua and Barbuda were forecasted to experience extreme damages from Hurricane Tammy with residents told to brace for more flooding (TOI 2023). From 9–11 October 2023, Hurricane Tammy developed from a well-defined tropical storm along the west coast of African and Cabo Verde (Kelly, 2024). As the storm traveled across the Atlantic, meteorologists predicted winds of up to 136.79 kph, heavy rainfall and flooding; government officials braced for severe damage and widespread power outages (Williams, 2023; Dominica News 2023) and hurricane warnings were issued for islands in Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelmy (TOI 2023). However, Tammy had unexpectedly minor impacts on Antigua. Although heavy rain and strong winds lasted all day, the hurricane warning was lifted on 22 October 2023 at 22:00 (Dominica News 2023). 

Hurricane Tammy was one of six cyclones to manifest during 23 October 2023. Meteorologists stated the increased frequency of tropical cyclones (including Tammy) in the Northern Hemisphere in 2023 reflected how warm ocean temperatures over the planet have changed the normal tendency for some ocean basins to have active years while others are less busy (Masters and Henson 2023).

Impact on the electoral process

Tammy did not impact voting day directly as the storm alleviated two days before polls opened. Rather, the storm impacted preparation for the elections (Dominica News 2023). In the days leading up to the by-election, the Antigua and Barbuda Electoral Commission (ABEC) took several precautions including finalizing a contingency plan (Thomas 2023; Williams 2023). The ABEC team's main focus was to inspect polling centres after the hurricane hit to ensure they were still operational (Thomas 2023). Additionally, with the threat of widespread power outages, the ABEC team discussed backup power solutions (Williams 2023). 

The ABEC discussed possibly postponing the elections according to section 31 of the Representation of the People Act 2001 – which makes such provision in the case of states of emergency, delays of electoral registers or shortages of electoral supplies. According to the act, the elections may only be postponed after the Governor-General consults with the Electoral Commission (Williams 2023) and must be rescheduled to occur within a 30-day window (Pheonix 2023). 

Fortunately, because Hurricane Tammy did not warrant a state of emergency, cause significant outages, or severely impede the election, the ABEC continued with the by-election as scheduled. 

The St. Mary’s South by-election saw a 75 per cent voter turnout (Antigua News Room 2023). The nationwide turnout for the general election earlier in the year (18 January 2023) was 70.34 per cent. (International IDEA n.d.).