Mid-term Congressional Elections, 8 November 2022

Hurricane Ian, September 2022 

On 28 September 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida’s southwest coast as a major Category 4 hurricane, before being downgraded to a tropical storm on the morning of 29 September. However, it was categorized back to a hurricane (Category 1) that evening and on 30 September made second landfall in the US as it approached the South Carolina coast. Ian left destruction across both South and North Carolina (NBC 2022). Florida was hit with historic storm surge flooding, causing extensive damage all through Southwest and Central Florida, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced that it had prepared its largest ever search-and-rescue operation (Aggarwal and McShane 2022). Around 2.6 million households and businesses in Florida and 566,000 in the Carolinas and Virginia were left without power (Santana 2022; Karlamangla 2022). The American Red Cross described Hurricane Ian as one of the largest natural disasters to ever hit Florida, with more than 100 confirmed fatalities in the US as a whole (Sky News 2022; Luscombe 2022). 

In preparation for Hurricane Ian, on 24 September President Biden made federal emergency aid available to the state of Florida to supplement state, tribal, and local response efforts (FEMA 2022a). On 1 October, Biden approved Florida’s request for an expedited major disaster declaration to allow assistance to survivors as well as federal funds for debris removal and emergency protective measures. Additionally, he declared a state of emergency in North Carolina for all 100 counties and the lands of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (FEMA 2022b). 

As officials and residents in Florida were reeling and recovering from the effects of Hurricane Ian, officials warned about incoming Tropical Storm Nicole on 10 November. Before making landfall, Nicole strengthened, becoming the first November hurricane to make landfall in the US in nearly 40 years (Frisaro and Coto 2022; Elamroussi et al. 2022). In preparation for Nicole, Governor Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency in 34 counties, on 7 November 2022. This was expanded on 9 November to an additional 11 counties (State of Florida 2022b). 

16 of the 20 hurricanes over the past two hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin have undergone rapid intensification. These series of rapidly intensified hurricanes can be attributed to climate change, as warmer waters, fueled by global warming, give hurricanes more energy to release (Dance and Patel 2022). NASA’s data showed that Hurricane Ian grew in intensity because it passed over ocean water that was 2–3 degrees warmer than normal for the time of year – while the water off Florida’s southwest coast has risen more than seven inches (18cm) since 1965, making hurricanes more destructive. Warmer air resulting from climate change also increased the amount of rain that Ian dropped on Florida by at least 10% (Flavelle and Weisman 2022).  

Impact on the electoral process  

Hurricane Ian hit the US less than six weeks before the national midterm elections held on 8 November. In preparation for Hurricane Ian, many election offices closed for several days from 27 September 2022, such as in Hillsborough, Sarasota and Collier County (Downey 2022). The last day to register to vote was 11 October, and early voting in Florida was from 29 October (the last day to request such a ballot) to 6 November 2022 (Florida Division of Elections n.d.b). According to Florida’s constitution, election officials need to send mail-in (previously known as absentee) ballots to domestic voters during a seven-day window between 40 and 33 days before an election.  

Despite local print and mailing houses losing power after Hurricane Ian, vendors were able to assemble mail ballots so they could be sent on time by all 67 counties. However, not all ballots were expected to reach displaced voters(Padró Ocasio 2022; Lopez 2022).  The Postal Service created alternate sites for people to pick up their ballots for up to 10 days after the attempted delivery of mail-in ballots to displaced voters (Lopez 2022). Supervisors contacted voters whose ballots were returned, instructing them on how to pick up the ballot or have it sent to another address (Z. Anderson 2022). 

President Biden’s visit through Fort Lauderdale and Orlando was postponed, and Florida candidates cancelled planned events. Some candidates also shifted their social media messaging to urge hurricane preparation (Kennedy 2022).  

A significant number of early voting sites or polling stations were damaged or rendered unusable by Hurricane Ian (State of Florida 2022a).   

On 12 October, Governor Ron DeSantis issued an executive order to expand special voting arrangements in three countries: Lee, Charlotte and Sarasota. This order extended the number of early voting days, for early voting to start on 24 October and extend through election day, 8 November. Election supervisors were authorized to designate additional early voting locations, as well as to relocate or consolidate polling locations as necessary. The pool of eligible workers who may serve within these three counties were increased by including any poll workers previously trained for the 2020 election cycle and thereafter. Lastly, the order allowed voters in the three counties to request by phone that their vote-by-mail ballot be mailed to an alternative address. However, voters still needed to provide an appropriate form of identification (State of Florida 2022a).   

Due to Nicole, Supervisors of Elections in affected counties reported anticipating hardships and challenges in verifying and counting the results to Florida’s Department of State (Florida Department of State 2022b). 

While there were no new election-related steps taken against Nicole before polling, election officials in some Florida counties urged people to vote early where possible (C. Anderson 2022). Following election day, on 9 November, the Florida Secretary of State issued an Emergency Order suspending statutory deadlines for Supervisors of Elections in the 45 counties under State of Emergency for Tropical Storm Nicole. The deadline for county Supervisors of Elections to submit the first set of unofficial elections returns was delayed from 12:00 on 12 November by 24 hours. This was to ensure all votes were counted accurately as Florida prepared for and responded to Nicole. Furthermore, if a citizen had a vote-by-mail ballot that needed to be fixed or a provisional ballot that needed additional eligibility documents, the deadline was extended from 17:00 on 10 November by 48 hours (Florida Dept. of State 2022a).   

For the 2022 midterms, Florida had a voter turnout of 54 per cent (Florida Division of Elections n.d.a). In comparison, Florida’s midterm elections turnout had been 63 per cent and its 2020 Presidential election turnout had been 77 per cent (Florida Division of Elections n.d.a).