Parliamentary and local elections, 31 May 2021

Drought, 2015–ongoing 

Communities in Somaliland (an autonomous self-governing region in northern Somalia) as well as neighbouring regions experienced a two-year drought from 2015–2017 and struggled to recover. At the end of 2019, locust infestation destroyed crops, which combined with extreme weather conditions as well as the socioeconomic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused acute food insecurity in the Horn of Africa (IOM 2022; ActionAid 2022). Furthermore, climate change has led to droughts becoming more intense and frequent, and its effects have been exacerbated by underlying societal vulnerabilities (IPCC 2022). For example, in 2021 Somaliland experienced its driest rainy season (October–December) in three decades (ActionAid 2022). In May 2021, the Government of Somalia declared a national emergency due to the drought situation (IFRC 2022).  

From July 2021, Somalia continued to experience extreme weather events. Reports from UN OCHA and FAO indicated that the 2022 Gu and Deyr rainy seasons were below average, resulting in further water scarcity and pasture loss. The 2022–2023 drought affected Southern and Central Somalia, particularly the Jubba and Shabelle river basins, displacing pastoralist communities and worsening food insecurity (International Crisis Group 2024). 

Impact on the electoral process  

Although Somaliland scheduled joint presidential and parliamentary elections in 2015, severe drought and political controversies led to multiple postponements (Qodah 2015, Pegg and Walls 2017). Voter registration was suspended due to failed rains, which forced many pastoralists to relocate beyond their usual areas of registration and voting. This forced the National Election Commission (NEC) of Somaliland and politicians to conclude that neither voter card distribution nor voting could take place between 2015 and 2017. However, negotiations between the political parties and the NEC led to the decision to conduct presidential elections in 2017 with a separate parliamentary poll in 2019 – the latter to be held in combination with local government elections. While the presidential election was held, the parliamentary and local government elections were postponed until 2021 (Pegg and Walls 2017; Hiiraan Online 2016; Walls n.d.). 

The drought had forced most nomads, in search of pasture for their animals, to cross into neighbouring countries. This caused administration issues, loss of voter rights—and inequalities thereof between communities more and less affected by displacement—with associated potential for inter-communal tensions. Migrating pastoralists requested mobile polling stations nearer to them, complaining of the distances involved in travel to and from polling stations. The drought also caused gender inequalities between the candidates, as male candidates were able to provide for necessities like water and dry food in return for votes in rural communities (SONSAF 2021). 

The 28 women and five minority candidates who stood received logistical support in transporting their voters displaced by the drought, in the form of 188 vehicles provided under the EU-funded PEACE project (SONSAF 2021). 

Changing population numbers and the Covid-19 pandemic recommended an increase in polling places and staff. However, as the voter cards had not been updated since 2017, the printed locations on some cards were inaccurate (Walls et al. 2021). 

Holding the elections during the Covid-19 pandemic presented further logistical challenges for the NEC. Procurement of Covid-19 related health materials for staff and voters was delayed due to a flight ban in Kenya, but eventually special permission for moving the materials was secured. Covid-19 and mitigation measures also impacted on staff health, safety and working methods (Walls et al. 2021). 

Turnout was approximately 64% of registered voters during the 2021 elections (International Crisis Group 2021). The last parliamentary election held in Somaliland was in 2005, with a turnout of approximately 84% (African Elections Database 2011). The latest election held in Somaliland was its presidential election in 2017, with a voter turnout of 79% (IFES 2022).