United States

Presidential Election, 8 November 2016

Wildfires in California, 2016  

In 2016, almost 670,000 acres burned and 1,274 structures were damaged or destroyed in California, with six fatalities. There were 12 major fires in the three months leading up to the general election (Birch and Fischer 2022; CAL FIRE n.d.).  

Due to climate change and human migration, wildfires and their effects, both nationwide and in California, have become more frequent and dangerous. Areas in California more likely to be affected by wildfires have seen a rise in human population (Brenkert-Smith et al. 2006). There has also been a marked increase in autumn fires, which brings the fire season closer to the early November election period (Birch and Fischer 2022).  

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2022), field evidence has shown that in western North America between 1984 and 2017, climate change doubled the area burned by wildfire above natural levels.  

Impact on the electoral process 

During the 2016 electoral cycle, burned residences and voter displacement were the two main effects of the wildfires on electoral infrastructure (Birch and Fischer 2022).   

Counties allowed for online voter registration. For those affected by the fires, some counties allowed for early in-person voting and mail-in ballots (Birch and Fischer 2022).  

During the 2012 general election, California had a 55.1 per cent voter turnout rate (US Elections Project 2014); in 2016 it rose to 58.2 per cent (US Elections Project 2018).   

Bibliography

Birch, S. and Fischer, J., Wildfire and Elections in California (Stockholm: International IDEA, 2022), <https://www.idea.int/publications/catalogue/wildfire-and-elections-california>, accessed 21 September 2025  

Brenkert-Smith, H., Champ, P. A. and Flores, N., ‘Insights Into Wildfire Mitigation Decisions Among Wildland–Urban Interface Residents’, Society and Natural Resources, 19/8 (2006), pp. 759–768, <https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920600801207> 

CAL FIRE (California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection), ‘2016 Incident Archive’, [n.d.], <https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2016/>, accessed 21 September 2025  

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge and New York: CUP, 2022), <https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf>, accessed 21 September 2025  

United States Elections Project, ‘2012 November General Election Turnout Rates’, updated 3 September 2014, <http://www.electproject.org/2012g>, accessed 21 September 2025  

—, ‘2016 November General Election Turnout Rates’, updated 5 September 2018, <http://www.electproject.org/2016g>, accessed 21 September 2025  

Year
2016
Election type
National Election
Hazard type
Wildfires
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