United States
Mid-term Congressional Elections, 6 November 2018
Wildfires in California, 2018
Until it was surpassed in 2020, the 2018 wildfire season in California was considered the deadliest and most destructive to date. A total of 1.67 million acres burned across the state, 24,226 structures were damaged or destroyed, and 100 fatalities were recorded. On 4 August, a national disaster was declared in Northern California, due to the scale of the challenge. In the three months leading up to the general election, the state faced 15 major fires (Birch and Fischer 2022; CAL FIRE n.d.).
Due to climate change and human migration, wildfires and their effects, both nationwide and in California have become more frequent and dangerous. Areas in California more likely to be affected by wildfires have seen a rise in human population (Brenkert-Smith et al. 2006). There has also been a marked increase in autumn fires, which brings the fire season closer to the early November election period (Birch and Fischer 2022).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2022), field evidence has shown that in western North America between 1984 and 2017, climate change doubled the area burned by wildfire above natural levels.
Impact on the electoral process
For the 2018 electoral cycle, burned residences, voter displacement, and damaged polling stations were the main impacts of the wildfires on electoral infrastructure (Birch and Fischer 2022).
Counties allowed for online voter registration, and in some counties allowed for in-person registration at emergency locations for those displaced by the fire. For those affected by the fires, some counties allowed for early in-person voting and mail-in ballots (Birch and Fischer 2022).
California’s turnout in 2018 was 49.3 per cent (US Elections Project 2018), as compared with 29.9 per cent during the 2014 general election (US Elections Project 2013).
Birch, S. and Fischer, J., Wildfire and Elections in California (Stockholm: International IDEA, 2022), <https://www.idea.int/publications/catalogue/wildfire-and-elections-california>, accessed 22 September 2025
Brenkert-Smith, H., Champ, P. A. and Flores, N., ‘Insights Into Wildfire Mitigation Decisions Among Wildland–Urban Interface Residents’, Society and Natural Resources, 19/8 (2006), pp. 759–768, <https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920600801207>
CAL FIRE (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection), ‘2018 Incident Archive’, [n.d.], <https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2018/>, accessed 22 September 2025
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge and New York: CUP, 2022), <https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf>, accessed 22 September 2025
United States Elections Project, ‘2014 November General Election Turnout Rates’, 2 September 2013 (i.e. predicted), <http://www.electproject.org/2014g>, accessed 22 September 2025
—, ‘2018 November General Election Turnout Rates’, 14 December 2018b, <http://www.electproject.org/2018g> accessed 22 September 2025