Presidential and legislative election, 5 November 2024

On 5 November the US elected the president and members of the Senate and House of Representatives. US voters cast their ballots for electors, which in turn act as delegates of a state’s voters in electing the president. There are 538 electors, which cast their votes for the majority presidential candidate of each state after the general election. They are divided between all 50 states depending on a state’s population, and most states use a winner-takes-all system. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to win (Sky News 2024). There is no federal election management body which is responsible for arranging elections, instead it is the responsibility of the states (International IDEA 2024). 

Russian “troll factory” R-FBI and their Storm-1516 campaign spread false and misleading claims on social media about presidential candidates, mostly targeting Democrat candidate Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz (Lister et al. 2024). A Chinese influence operation on social media was also identified a few months before election day. This included the creation of fake accounts purporting to be American voters, with the aim of polarizing debates on election issues, according to US officials. These posts were critical of outgoing President Joe Biden, Harris and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate (Bond 2024). 

AI generated disinformation was widespread on social media and even offline, with material such as an AI-generated recording having earlier misrepresented Biden in the New Hampshire primary election (Steck and Kaczynski 2024). Reports about Salt Typhoon, a Chinese hacker group, emerged before election day. It was reported that the hackers had tried to hack mobile devices across the US. It was found that Trump and his running mate J.D Vance were especially targeted, as well as staff members of the Democratic party (Barrett 2024). False and misleading narratives levelled against both Trump and Harris, attacks on the latter taking on misogynistic, sexist and racist themes (Steffen 2024b; Serwer 2024). 

Violence was a continuous issue during the election period. Election officials in Michigan who faced threats driven by misinformation organized a range of table-top exercises designed to improve security ahead of election day (Huseman 2024). Gender-based violence was also prevalent in the 2024 elections, with female candidates, election officials, and officeholders—particularly women of color and LGBTQIA+ individuals—facing escalating threats, misogynistic abuse, and sexualized harassment (Brennan Center for Justice 2024; Finkel and Thakur 2024).  During a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump was the subject of an assassination attempt while giving a speech (Herb and Andone 2024). A second attempt by a separate perpetrator occurred in September in Florida (Herb 2024). In Oregon and Washington ballot boxes were set on fire just a few days before the election (Boyette 2024). Polling station workers in multiple states faced threats of violence. Bomb threats against  polling stations in swing states were found to be linked to Russia and mostly targeted Democratic leaning areas (Reid and Lynch 2024). Leading up to the election, there were several election-related fatalities. In one instance, a Trump supporter stabbed a postal worker handing out Harris flyers (Kaufman 2024), while in another a man putting up a Trump sign in his yard was run over by a vehicle (Powers and Buczek 2024). 

The US experienced several natural hazards impacting the election. In June, Arizona and Nevada faced record heatwaves which led to the hospitalization of several voters attending Trump rallies in Pheonix and Las Vegas (Vardy et al. 2024; Crowley and Robison 2024). In late September, Hurricane Helene damaged infrastructure such as polling stations and election offices ahead of early voting, rendering some areas inaccessible due to flooding (Jones n.d.). Early voting with mail-in ballots was limited in states where postal services were affected (Asplund and Harty 2024). In early October, Hurricane Milton was the subject of online disinformation, including by a sitting member of Congress (Steffen 2024a). The hurricanes also caused some state authorities to adjust voting procedures (Lieb and Farrington 2024). On election day, Missouri faced heavy flooding which caused the death of two polling officials and required the closing of a polling station (Salter 2024; Genetti 2024). 

Observers noted that the election took place in a polarized environment, in which concerns over foreign interference, hurricanes Milton and Helene, and political violence threatened public trust. Harassment of election officials made the recruitment process difficult, which led to the safety of staff becoming a primary concern. Acceptance of the anticipated outcome was not always assured (OSCE 2024), reprising the baseless narrative of a “stolen” election in 2020. OSCE observers also concluded that campaigning was marked by aggressive and negative rhetoric from both presidential candidates. 

However, the election itself was conducted in an orderly and peaceful manner in the places observed. The observer mission commended several countermeasures to disinformation threats, such as enhanced voter information and resilience building in the cybersecurity system (OSCE 2024). Some states have passed laws with a restrictive impact on the exercise of voting rights, with legal challenges coming close to the elections and contributing to legal uncertainty. Nevertheless, voter turnout was thought to have been “sky-high” (Riccardi 2024) pending exact and confirmed figures. 

Despite gains in the previous federal elections, women remain under-represented, holding 28 per cent of all congressional seats and 32 per cent in state legislatures (OSCE 2024).

In the presidential contest, Donald Trump secured 312 electoral college votes to become the 47th president, while Kamala Harris received 226 votes. President Trump also won the popular vote with 49.9 per cent, 1.5 per cent ahead of Harris.