Constitutional referendum 10 May 2008

Cyclone Nargis, May 2008 

 
Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar on 2–3 May 2008, making landfall in the Ayeyarwady Delta with wind speeds of over 200 km/h and a storm surge rising nearly 12 feet inland (International Medical Relief n.d.). The official death toll stands at 84,537, with a further 53,836 missing and around 20,000 injured (DPA 2008). In total, approximately 2.4 million people were severely affected, many of whom lost family members, homes, food reserves, livestock and livelihoods. Of the 7.35 million residents living in the most affected townships such as Labutta, Bogale, Pyinsa, and Yangon, nearly a third were directly impacted (International Medical Relief n.d.). The destruction of farmland, food reserves and livestock created an immediate threat of famine and long-term food insecurity (International Crisis Group 2008). 
 

Impact on the electoral process  
 
On 6 May 2008, the military government of Myanmar (SPDC) announced that the referendum would take placed as planned on 10 May 2008 for most of Myanmar. Opposition voices and independent media criticized the government’s insistence on holding the referendum amid a humanitarian catastrophe. A representative of the media organization Democratic Voice of Burma commented: “They [the SPDC] would be very stupid to go ahead with it. Thousands of people are dying or missing. It is very difficult to get around or get food and water. How can people vote?” (Martin and Margesson 2008). International NGO actors also called for postponement, arguing that all state capacity should be devoted to disaster relief rather than political consolidation (Human Rights Watch 2008). 

At the time, Myanmar's legal framework allowed for some procedural flexibility in the face of natural disasters. Under such circumstances Article 20 of the February 2008 Referendum Law empowered township sub-commissions to postpone voting in specific polling stations or entire areas (Thomas 2008). This provision made it possible to delay the referendum in the regions hardest hit by the cyclone (townships surrounding Rangoon and for seven townships in the Irrawaddy region), allowing the government to proceed with the process in a phased manner (Martin and Margesson 2008). The 47 townships that did not hold elections on 10 May were scheduled to hold them on 24 May 2008 (Mizzima News/Nay Thwin 2008). 

On the 15 May 2008, the authorities claimed a turnout of 99 per cent in the areas where voting took place – a figure widely condemned as fraudulent (Human Rights Watch 2008). The military government went on to claim that over 26.8 million had participated in the referendum, with 92.48 per cent voting in favour of adopting the new constitution (ILO 2008). Commentators condemned the referendum as a sham designed to reinforce the 46-year rule of Burma’s military, as the draft constitution guarantees the armed forces a quarter of all parliamentary seats (MacKinnon 2008). 
 
On the day before the referendum, a truck circulated through villages near Rangoon, the capital, promoting the referendum and offering free transport to villagers who lived too far to walk to the nearest polling station (Time 2008). When voting took place, reports of irregularities and coercion were widespread. According to Human Rights Watch, the referendum was conducted under conditions of official intimidation, with voters followed into polling booths, “no” votes discarded, and polling staff threatened with dismissal if their stations returned unfavourable results (Human Rights Watch 2008). Some voters reported arriving at polling stations as they opened, only to find ballot boxes already filled with “yes” votes, which officials attributed to so-called “advance votes.” (MacKinnon 2008).