General Election, September 2018

Earthquake, 19 September 2017 

On 19 September 2017, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit just west of the town of Puebla, about 120 km southeast of Mexico City. This earthquake resulted in damage to thousands of homes and apartment buildings – and 326 deaths, with 187 being in Mexico City. The earthquake hit around midday in a mainly residential area – the death toll could have been higher had most people not been elsewhere in the city for work.  (Tena-Colunga et al. 2021). It is estimated the economic losses from this earthquake were around USD $2.476 billion, or 0.15 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (UNDRR 2024). 

Impact on the electoral process 

Mexico held their general elections on 1 July 2018. (Folch 2018). The Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) announced that there will be special polling stations set up for citizens unable to poll at their designated locations. 16 of these stations were in Mexico City across the 22 boroughs. Some election monitors noticed raising tensions at these locations because they ran out of ballots before closing time leaving certain citizens unable to vote. The stations only had 750 ballots and were open from 8:00 to 18:00 (Nicolai and Gonzalez 2018).   

In Mexico City, the earthquake appeared to influence voter behaviour in favour of incumbent PRD candidates: citizens were more likely to vote for them over the opposition MORENA, particularly in areas that received greater earthquake relief and reconstruction assistance from the government. However, direct cash transfers were seen by some as less effective and raised concerns about being interpreted as an attempt to influence voter choice (Martínez-Álvarez and Rodríguez-Valadez 2023). 

Voter turnout was 63.43 per cent, meaning it held steady from the 2012 election when it had been 63.14 per cent. (International IDEA n.d.). Of the 86 million eligible voters, around 23 million are from areas most affected by the earthquake: Mexico City, Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Morelos. In total, around one in four Mexicans were affected by the earthquake prior to the election (Hernández Mecalco n.d.).