Subnational Elections (By-elections), September 18 and 5 October 2025

Floods  

From June 2025 onwards, northern Pakistan experienced severe flooding triggered by intense monsoon rains. The Punjab faced severe crisis in the districts of Muzaffargarh and Multan as the swollen Ravi and Chenab rivers converged near Khanewal. Despite several controlled breaches over the preceding week, authorities warned of an unprecedented disaster as water levels continued to climb. The situation worsened with a massive surge of approximately 550,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs) crossing the Marala and Khanki Headworks and passing through Qadirabad Headworks at 530,000 cusecs.  

Overall, more than 3.7 million people across Punjab were affected, with over 3,900 villages damaged. Over 1.4 million residents, along with 1 million animals, were relocated to safer areas. Initial relief efforts included 409 flood camps, providing essential services to around 25,000 displaced individuals (Gabol 2025). Less than a week later, the floods had displaced 2.2 million people across Punjab. Military-supported rescue operations evacuated nearly 100,000 people overnight from Jalalpur Pirwala and 122,000 more were relocated within 24 hours due to submerged homes and farmland (Tanveer and Ahmed 2025). Infrastructure suffered extensive damage, including washed-away roads, bridges, railway lines, electricity networks, government buildings, polling stations and storage facilities for election materials (Business Recorder 2025). Multan remained vulnerable as river levels continued to rise, while nationwide, monsoon floods had claimed over 900 lives by the second week of September, with nearly 80,000 people in relief camps (Tanveer and Ahmed 2025). 

Analysis of historical observational data shows that the region’s 30-day maximum rainfall has been about 22 per cent heavier than it would have been without human-induced global heating. Climate change has amplified Pakistan’s monsoon rains, worsening urban flooding and disproportionately affecting highly exposed communities (WWA 2025). 

Impact on the electoral process 

The disqualification and sentencing of several Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf lawmakers by anti-terrorism courts in connection with the May 9 cases prompted the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to schedule by-elections in National Assembly constituencies NA-66 (Wazirabad), NA-96 and NA-104 (Faisalabad), NA-129 (Lahore) and NA-143 (Sahiwal). Additionally, by-elections were announced for four Punjab Assembly seats: PP-73 (Sargodha), PP-87 (Mianwali), PP-97 (Faisalabad) and PP-203 (Sahiwal) (Mahmood 2025). Originally scheduled for 18 September and 5 October, the above have been suspended until the flood situation stabilizes (Rahman 2025). 

 
Government schools and other facilities used as polling stations and for storing election records have been damaged by the floods. Furthermore, with civil administration and law enforcement agencies currently focused on rescue and relief efforts, attempting to carry out election-related duties to the original schedule would have been difficult. The ECP explained that many voters would be unable to participate in the electoral process due to displacement, meaning disenfranchisement and low turnout. The Punjab government also requested the postponement of the by-elections to make staff and buildings available for relief operations (Mahmood 2025). The ECP further that due to disenfranchisement of voters due to displacement, an election could not be ensured with the optimum level of security as mandated under Article 218(3) of the Constitution (Business Recorder 2025).